← Whimsy DTR Store Championships
Water AetherwingTier 2
at Whimsy DTR Store Championships
decks
2
(4.8% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
12
6-4-2
overall winrate
58.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
52.9%
avg ELO +1.2 per match
expected value
47.3%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
47.5%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1420
· median 1420
· range 1352–1487
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1111
Q1 1267
Q3 1467
1642
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Mage | 16.7% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 37.4% | -12.1 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 11.9% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.9% | -0.1 |
| Fire Aggro | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 4.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.7% | +17.1 |
| Fire Suited | 4.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.7% | -10.0 |
| Water Allies | 4.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.6% | +5.8 |
| Water Neos | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 4.8% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 42.1% | -7.6 |
| Wind Allies | 4.8% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.4% | +0.6 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Byakko | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 2.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.7% | +12.3 |
| Fire Tera Mage | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 2.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.9% | +15.8 |
| Wind Exia | 2.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.0% | +12.8 |
| Wind Vanitas | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 2 from this event
The 2 public Water Aetherwing decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
